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Accepted: 22 May 2020

DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13294

ANIMAL SOCIAL NETWORKS
Research Article

Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and
overlap of social carnivores
Ellen E. Brandell1
| Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones2
| Marie L. J. Gilbertson2 |
Paul C. Cross3
| Peter J. Hudson1 | Douglas W. Smith4 | Daniel R. Stahler4 |
Craig Packer5
| Meggan E. Craft2
1

Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics &amp;
Department of Biology, Huck Institute for
Life Sciences, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA, USA

2

Department of Veterinary Population
Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul,
MN, USA
3

U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky
Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT,
USA
4

Yellowstone Center for Resources,
Yellowstone National Park, WY, USA
5
Department of Ecology, Evolution and
Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul,
MN, USA

Correspondence
Ellen E. Brandell
Email: ebrandell08@gmail.com
Funding information
College of Veterinary Medicine University of
Minnesota; U.S. Geological Survey, Grant/
Award Number: G17AC00427; National
Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number:
DEB-1413925, DEB-1654609 and LTREB
DEB–1245373; National Institutes of Health,
Grant/Award Number: T32OD010993
Handling Editor: Damien Farine

Abstract
1. The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information,
behaviour and pathogens. Group territory size and territory overlap and components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be
indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates and environmental
risk (e.g. indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality and behaviour
can also shape space use, and subsequently, how space use and habitat quality
together impact demography.
2. Our study aims to identify factors shaping the spatial organization of wildlife
populations and assess the impact of epizootics on space use. We further aim to
explore the mechanisms by which disease perturbations could cause changes in
spatial organization.
3. Here we assessed the seasonal spatial organization of Serengeti lions and
Yellowstone wolves at the group level. We use network analysis to describe spatial organization and connectivity of social groups. We then examine the factors
predicting mean territory size and mean territory overlap for each population
using generalized additive models.
4. We demonstrate that lions and wolves were similar in that group-level factors, such
as number of groups and shaped spatial organization more than population-level
factors, such as population density. Factors shaping territory size were slightly
different than factors shaping territory overlap; for example, wolf pack size was
an important predictor of territory overlap, but not territory size. Lion spatial networks were more highly connected, while wolf spatial networks varied seasonally.
We found that resource dispersion may be more important for driving territory
size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Additionally, canine distemper epizootics
may have altered lion spatial organization, highlighting the importance of including
infectious disease epizootics in studies of behavioural and movement ecology.
5. We provide insight about when we might expect to observe the impacts of resource dispersion, disease perturbations, and other ecological factors on spatial
organization. Our work highlights the importance of monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group level. Future research should elucidate the

J Anim Ecol. 2021;90:87–101.

wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jane�
© 2020 British Ecological Society

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Received: 7 November 2019

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

complex relationships between demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic
and biotic conditions and pathogen infections.
KEYWORDS

disease, lion, network, resource dispersion, spatial oganization, territoriality, territory overlap,
wolf

1 | I NTRO D U C TI O N

population dynamics or individual fitness (Armansin et al., 2019; He,
Maldonado-Chaparro, &amp; Farine, 2019; Paniw, Maag, Cozzi, Clutton-

The spatial organization of free-ranging animal populations, such

Brock, &amp; Ozgul, 2019). For example, Yellowstone wolves infected

as territory size and overlap (Arden-Clarke, 1986; Belcher &amp;

with sarcoptic mange have substantially higher survival when they

Darrant, 2004), emerges from patterns in resource availability and

are associated with larger packs and there are higher prey densities

distribution (Macdonald, 1983), and can drive a population's de-

(Almberg et al., 2015); however, access to prey and hunting suc-

mographic rates (Cantor et al., 2012; Pasinelli et al., 2011), consumer-

cess is influenced by territory location and topography (Kauffman

resource dynamics (Murdoch, Briggs, &amp; Nisbet, 2003) and disease

et al., 2007; Nelson et al., 2012). Thus, the survival of an infected

transmission (Cross, Lloyd-Smith, Johnson, &amp; Getz, 2005; Hess,

wolf is necessarily linked to the spatial characteristics of its pack.

1996). Similarly, mating systems (Gosden &amp; Svensson, 2008), kin

For highly territorial social species, such as lions and wolves, social

relations (VanderWaal, Mosser, &amp; Packer, 2009) and human pres-

behaviour like territory defence, infanticide and scent marking plays

sures (Lesmerises, Dussault, &amp; St-Laurent, 2013) can also influence

an important role in maintaining boundaries and limiting the amount

a population's spatial organization. How predators are distributed

of space that groups share (Cubaynes et al., 2014; Packer, Scheel, &amp;

on the landscape has repercussions for competing predators and

Pusey, 1990; Smith et al., n.d; Spong &amp; Creel, 2004). Here we explore

prey (Kittle, Bukombe, Sinclair, Mduma, &amp; Fryxell, 2016; Kohl

variables shaping space use more comprehensively.

et al., 2019). Thus, recognizing the ecology of observed spatial pat-

Spatial organization may also be affected by biotic and abiotic

terns of a population is important for understanding population dy-

perturbations, including extreme weather events (Loe et al., 2016;

namics and relationships among species in a community. Here we

Paniw et al., 2019), harvest (Woodroffe et al., 2006) or infectious

ask, which factors drive spatial organization in territorial carnivore

disease epizootics (reviewed in Binning, Shaw, &amp; Roche, 2017). For

populations? We investigate this question by leveraging 60 cumu-

instance, wolves decrease their daily distance travelled as the sever-

lative years of observations to examine the covariates influencing

ity of their mange infection intensifies, likely because of the increas-

territory size and territory overlap of African lions Panthera leo in

ing energetic demands of thermoregulation as hair loss increases

Serengeti National Park and grey wolves Canis lupus in Yellowstone

(Cross et al., 2016). Parasites can manipulate intermediate hosts to

National Park.

travel to habitats where they are more likely to be predated by the

Spatial organization is commonly characterized by territori-

definitive hosts—these are areas that hosts often avoid when un-

ality, which is a product of both biotic and abiotic processes in an

infected (Lafferty &amp; Morris, 1996; Thomas et al., 2002). Thus the

environment. A territory is an area encompassing vital resources

consequences of an infection may manifest in changes in space use;

for an individual's fitness (Macdonald, 1983); this predominantly

for example, male wood mice infected with nematode parasites have

includes an area to give birth and raise young (e.g. nests, burrows)

larger territories than uninfected males (Brown, Macdonald, Tew,

and food resources. There is a range in territorial behaviour, from

&amp; Todd, 1994), and female Tasmanian devils decreased their home

acute protection of a transient resource (e.g. speckled wood but-

range size and overlap following a wide-spread facial tumour disease

terfly: Davies, 1978), to intense defence year-round (e.g. Eurasian

outbreak (Comte, Carver, Hamede, &amp; Jones, 2020). The relationship

otters: Erlinge, 1968; gray wolves: Mech, 1994; African lions:

between space use and epizootics is a new area of research for ter-

Heinsohn, 1997).

ritorial, social carnivores.

Literature from the last few decades emphasizes how food

Network analysis can be used to describe spatial organization

availability predominantly influences a population's spatial orga-

(Croft, Madden, Franks, &amp; James, 2011). When groups in a popula-

nization (Davies &amp; Hartley, 1996; Fuller, Mech, &amp; Cochrane, 2003;

tion (i.e. nodes) interact with each other, these relationships can be

Lack, 1954; Ostfeld, 1985; Simon, 1975). However, sociality and be-

quantified as ‘edges’ in a network, and edges can be weighted based

haviour can also shape space use, and space use and habitat quality

on frequency, intensity, duration or type of interaction. Networks

together can impact demography (Alberts, 2019; Thompson, 2019).

using spatial overlap to form edges connecting nodes have demon-

Research focusing on the relationship between spatial organi-

strated utility in elucidating non-random relationships (Godfrey,

zation, sociality, and the abiotic and biotic environment has fed a

Moore, Nelson, &amp; Bull, 2010; Perkins, Cagnacci, Stradiotto, Arnoldi,

central debate in ecology, and recent work highlights that spa-

&amp; Hudson, 2009; VanderWaal, Atwill, Isbell, &amp; McCowan, 2014), in-

tial and social organization cannot be ignored when considering

cluding the identification of parasite transmission pathways via the

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88

�relationship between home range overlap and the spatiotemporal
spread of parasites (i.e. Fenner, Godfrey, &amp; Bull, 2011). Here we use
a network approach to describe connectivity among lion prides in

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2 | M ATE R I A L S A N D M E TH O DS
2.1 | African lion and grey wolf sociality

Serengeti and wolf packs in Yellowstone.
These exceptionally well-monitored lion and wolf populations

Lions and wolves reside in familial social groups. African lion

provide a unique opportunity to compare and contrast the spatial or-

prides are comprised of related females and their offspring typi-

ganization of group-living carnivores that occur in similar ecosystems

cally &lt;3 years old (Packer, Gilbert, Pusey, &amp; O’Brieni, 1991; Pusey

and with similar ecology. Serengeti and Yellowstone are both vast

&amp; Packer, 1987). Prides range in size from 2 to 21 adult females

expanses of protected land that contain suites of carnivores, meso-

(Pusey &amp; Packer, 1987). Prides are highly territorial and, although

predators and ungulate prey. Both systems experience extreme sea-

rare, interpride interactions are aggressive and can be deadly

sonality, which drives migratory ungulate and predator movement.

(Grinnell, Packer, &amp; Pusey, 1995; Schaller, 1972). Male lions live

Lions and wolves are apex predators that live in highly territorial,

in smaller groups (1–9 individuals) and fight for access to females;

familial groups (i.e. prides and packs, respectively). Generally, larger

males may have access to more than one female pride territory at

groups have higher fitness, higher hunting success and access to bet-

a time (Bygott, Bertram, &amp; Hanby, 1979; Pusey &amp; Packer, 1987).

ter quality habitat (lions: Mosser &amp; Packer, 2009; Packer et al., 1990;

Male lions disperse from their natal prides before sexual maturity,

wolves: MacNulty, Tallian, Stahler, &amp; Smith, 2014; Stahler, MacNulty,

and female lions may leave if the pride grows too large and may

Wayne, vonHoldt, &amp; Smith, 2013; Tallents, Randall, Williams, &amp;

occupy a neighbouring territory, but territories remain exclusive

MacDonald, 2012; but see Kittle et al., 2015). Serengeti lions and

(VanderWaal et al., 2009).

Yellowstone wolves have both experienced population-wide ex-

Wolf packs are typically comprised of a breeding pair, their de-

posure to canine distemper virus (CDV)—lions in 1976, 1981,

pendent offspring and a few unrelated individuals. Packs typically

1994, 1998 and 2007, and wolves in 1999, 2005 and 2008 (Cross

range from 3 to 12 members. Wolves disperse from their packs

et al., 2018; Packer et al., 1999; Viana et al., 2015).

when the pack is too large to be supported. To avoid inbreeding,

We assess how group living, resource abundance, epizootics and

packs rely on the emigration of related individuals out of their natal

environmental factors drive the spatial organization of territorial

packs and the immigration of unrelated individuals into new packs

carnivore populations. First, we describe lion pride and wolf pack

(Mech &amp; Boitani, 2003; VonHoldt et al., 2008). On average, dis-

spatial organization using network analysis; second, we examine the

persers in the Rocky Mountains relocated about 90–100 km away

group, population and seasonal covariates influencing these popula-

from their previous pack's territory (straight-line distance, Jimenez

tions’ spatial organization using generalized additive models (GAMs).

et al., 2017). Wolf pack territories are distinct and interpack conflicts

Figure 1 displays a workflow connecting the covariates we used in

are often aggressive and can result in death, even between related

our models, the potential mechanisms and processes underlying

individuals from different packs (Cassidy, MacNulty, Stahler, Smith,

their relationships, and our model types.

&amp; Mech, 2015; Cubaynes et al., 2014).

F I G U R E 1 Workflow diagram
displaying how our dataset (covariates,
grey boxes) can relate to spatial
organization (response variables, pink
box) and the selected analyses (blue
boxes). Arrows represent mechanisms or
processes that may link the variables and
models; direction of the arrow implies the
direction of the process

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

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Journal of Animal Ecology

2.2 | Study sites and location data

BRANDELL et al.

Wolves were monitored using global positioning system (GPS)
collar locations and visual observations aided by VHF collars. Wolves

Serengeti National Park (Serengeti) is a vast protected area

were located approximately biweekly via aerial monitoring through-

(14,750-km2) located in northern Tanzania and can be roughly

out the year (1997–2016; Kohl et al., 2019; Smith &amp; Bangs, 2009).

divided into grassland plains (southern portion) and woodland

Individually identifiable wolves were members of packs with known

(northern portion) habitats. The Serengeti ecosystem is recog-

membership and composition. We excluded any singular wolves or

nized for the massive annual wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus and

transient groups from our analysis, defined as groups surviving &lt;2

zebra Equus burchelli migrations where ungulates move south in

consecutive months. We also removed the years 1995–1996 when

the wet season and north in the dry season. Buffalo Syncerus caffer

the population was being reintroduced.

are a common resident ungulate, making them an important dry
season food source. Suites of predators also reside in Serengeti,
including African lions P. leo.

2.3 | Calculating territory size and overlap

The lion population increased from the start of monitoring in
1966 to 2014; increases in population size occurred every 5–10 years

All individual locations were aggregated by group (Kittle et al., 2015).

as numbers jump from a lower equilibrium value to a higher value,

Kernel density estimation was used to construct seasonal territo-

with one notable decrease in population size which began after the

ries with a limited extent and the standard degree of smoothing.

1994 CDV outbreak and persisted for 5 years (Packer et al., 2005;

Peripheral locations (5%) were discarded to calculate each group's

Figure S1a). The CDV epizootic in 1994 led to a one-third reduc-

95% territory size and removed extreme outlier positions from ter-

tion in the lion population size across all age classes (Roelke-Parker

ritories that were probably incorrectly recorded locations; we then

et al., 1996). There were also multiple periods of widespread CDV

averaged the 95% kernel densities for all observed prides/packs

exposure (1976, 1981, 1994, 1998, 2007), determined via opportu-

over the season to create a variable called territory size. Seasons

nistic serological testing, where population-wide declines were not

were considered to be 6 months long based on mean temperature

observed (Munson et al., 2008; Viana et al., 2015). We considered

and precipitation (rain in Serengeti and snow in Yellowstone). In

the five CDV exposure periods as CDV epizootics.

Serengeti, the wet season was defined as November–April and the

Lions were monitored weekly (1973–2014) by recording the loca-

dry season was May–October (Boone, Thirgood, &amp; Hopcraft, 2006;

tions of individually identified lions; the years 1966–1972 were ex-

McNaughton, 1985; Pascual &amp; Hilborn, 1995). In Yellowstone, winter

cluded due to a low number of sightings and few monitored prides.

was defined as October–March and summer was April–September.

These sightings were either opportunistic or aided by the use of

We assessed whether lion or wolf territories were inflated with

very-high-frequency (VHF) telemetry. Individuals were members

small numbers of location coordinates. In general, territory size and

of prides with known compositions and all lions within observed

overlap were fairly stable as the number of locations approached 50,

groups were recorded. In order to retain a focus on the comparison

and were fairly stable or slightly declined as the number of locations

of group-living social carnivores, we did not include solitary lions in

exceeded 50 (Supporting Information Effects of sample size on net-

this analysis.

work estimation, Figures S3 and S4). There is a trade-off between re-

Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone) is a large protected

taining enough groups to realistically represent the population while

area (8,991 km2) characterized by long, harsh winters when elk

ensuring the groups were appropriately sampled (Cross et al., 2012;

Cervus canadensis and bison Bison bison migrations occur in northern

Gilbertson, White, &amp; Craft, 2020). Thus, we discarded any groups

Yellowstone. Elk are one of the most abundant ungulates and grey

with &lt;21 locations per season.

wolves’ C. lupus main prey source (Metz, Smith, Vucetich, Stahler,

To ensure we compared territories with approximately uniform

&amp; Peterson, 2012). Central and southern Yellowstone are referred

amounts of data, we randomly selected up to 400 locations annu-

to as the Interior, which is characterized by higher elevations and

ally from each group without replacement, aiming for 200 locations

higher snow levels, and it is more heavily forested.

per group per season. Estimating a territory using random sampling

Wolves were reintroduced into Yellowstone in 1995, decades

reduces autocorrelation and provides reasonably small bias and ex-

after extirpation. Their population increased rapidly, peaking in

ceptional precision when the smoothing parameter is appropriate

2008 at nearly 200 wolves, before it declined and subsequently sta-

(Fieberg, 2007). Lion locations were occasionally identical due to

bilized at about 90 wolves between 2010 and 2016 (Smith, Stahler,

sampling methodology, prohibiting territory estimation. Therefore,

et al., 2017; Figure S1b). The wolf population experienced three

if a pride contained &lt;11 unique locations in a given season, we ex-

major CDV epizootics between 1997 and 2016 that were associated

panded the territory to 1 km2 around those locations. This expansion

with juvenile mortality up to ~80%: 1999, 2005 and 2008 (Almberg,

allowed for territory and overlap estimation and retention of extant

Mech, Smith, Sheldon, &amp; Crabtree, 2009). CDV epizootic years were

prides. We do not expect territories to differ according to collar type

determined using a combination of juvenile seropositivity, observed

or time of day (Demma &amp; Mech, 2011; lions sleep for ~22 hr/day).

host symptoms and subsequent mortality, and, for a subset of indi-

Territory overlap was estimated using the volume of intersec-

viduals suspected to be infected during outbreaks, the confirmation

tion between each group and its neighbours. The volume of in-

of CDV infection was achieved via PCR (Almberg et al., 2009).

tersection index is a common overlap metric that ranges from 0

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90

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91

(complete exclusion) to 1 (complete overlap) while it accounts for the

weighted and unfiltered, which is generally preferred to removing

three-dimensional shape of the territory kernel (Millspaugh, Gitzen,

edges below an arbitrary weight threshold, or binary edges (Farine

Kernohan, Larson, &amp; Clay, 2004). Volume of intersection can be in-

&amp; Whitehead, 2015).

terpreted as the proportion of space shared between two groups

We explored the population attributes: network size (total num-

within a season. We summed all overlap measurements per group

ber of groups), mean degree (mean number of groups each group

(i.e. total group-level overlap) and averaged them to calculate ter-

spatially overlaps with), proportion disconnected (the proportion of

ritory overlap, which describes how much space is shared between

groups that did not overlap with other groups), network density (the

that group and neighbouring groups in the population that season

proportion of possible edges that are realized), betweenness central-

(i.e. average group-level overlap).

ity (how important a group is in spatially connecting the population

All group-level attributes were averaged by season before anal-

based on the shortest paths between groups) and closeness centrality

yses. In summary, the data were calculated for each group, per sea-

(a group's connectivity to the rest of the population calculated as

son, per year and then averaged. Our two response variables (mean

the inverse of the average shortest distance between a group and

territory size and mean territory overlap) were calculated in the

r

all other groups in the network). Centrality measures were weighted

package adehabitatHR (Calenge, 2006) with the functions ‘kernelUD’

by territory overlap (volume of intersection ≥0.001), and density and

(‘kern = bivnorm’), ‘getverticeshr’, and ‘kerneloverlap’. Although not

degree were unweighted; attributes were calculated in the r package

a main goal of this manuscript, we also assessed the validity of using

igraph

territory overlap as a surrogate for direct contact between members

averaged across each season before network analyses (i.e. centrality,

of different groups in the lion and wolf populations (see Supporting

degree).

(Csardi &amp; Nepusz, 2006). Again, group-level attributes were

Information: Spatial overlap as a surrogate for direct contact).

2.4 | Network analysis

2.5 | Statistical analysis
Covariates considered to be potentially important in shaping ter-

We used network analysis to more broadly describe how well the

ritory size and territory overlap among groups included: population

populations were spatially connected (Figure 2; Figure S2). Weighted

density (population count within study areas), group size (group size

edges were constructed using territory overlap; networks were

observed), number of groups (number of distinct groups observed

F I G U R E 2 Wolf seasonal territories
(85% isopleths of kernel density estimates
for visualization purposes) for packs in
summer (top left) and winter (bottom left)
for the year 2011, where the thin black
outline is the boundary of Yellowstone
National Park. The right column shows
the corresponding seasonal networks.
Each pack was assigned a colour, edge
width represents total overlap between
territories and network configurations
reflect approximate spatial organization
(r package igraph; Csardi &amp; Nepusz, 2006).
Figure S2 is the equivalent figure for lions

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

within study areas), season (lion: dry/wet, wolf: summer/winter),

function (tensor product) that is recommended for variables

rainfall (lions) or snow level (wolf), habitat (lion: woodlands/plains,

with temporal correlation (Wood &amp; Augustin, 2002). Then, CDV

wolf: northern range/interior), CDV epizootic (number of years since

epizootic was added as a numeric covariate (model 2). Finally,

the last period of exposure) and prey population densities (annual

we constructed the complete model (model 3) adding the covari-

counts within study areas). It is likely that territory size and terri-

ates listed in Supporting Information Table S1 (excluding popu-

tory overlap are not independent, and so we used these variables

lation density in the lion model). We used the Gaussian process

as covariates in respective models: territory overlap was used as a

basis function for population density, number of groups, group

predictor of territory size, and territory size was used as a predic-

size and elk abundance as these were also temporally autocor-

tor of territory overlap. Prey population sizes from the Serengeti

related. The default basis functions were used for the remaining

were only available at the ecosystem level for buffalo, Thomson's

covariates.

gazelle, wildebeest and zebra from aerial surveys conducted every

Each model was fitted using restricted maximum likelihood

2–6 years. These parameters were obtained from previously pub-

and models were evaluated using the ‘gam.check’ function. p val-

lished studies; see Supporting Information Table S1 for details on

ues were calculated using the ‘ANOVA’ function since season was

each covariate.

a covariate in all of our models. We used the package

mgcv

(Wood

We used GAMs to understand how our covariates shaped terri-

&amp; Augustin, 2002) to construct each GAM. Model selection was

tory size and overlap, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation.

performed using the integrated penalized spline approach (Wood

Prior to analysis, we screened for variable collinearity, and, in the

&amp; Augustin, 2002) and the temporal trend model and temporal

lion dataset, excluded population density as it was strongly collinear

trend + CDV model were compared to the complete model based

with the number of prides on the landscape (Pearson's correlation

on AIC values. The model with the smallest AIC was selected; we

coefficient = 0.79). To screen for variable interactions to include in

discuss models within two ΔAIC of the top model (Burnham &amp;

our GAM models, we employed two machine learning algorithms

Anderson, 2002). All analyses were performed in Program R version

(using the default parameters): support vector machines (Hastie,

3.6.1 (R Core Team, 2019). See Supporting Information and Data

Rosset, Tibshirani, &amp; Zhu, 2004) and boosted regression trees (Elith,

Accessibility statement for further details.

Leathwick, &amp; Hastie, 2008). We used the support vector machines
for the wolf dataset because they are better suited for dealing with
smaller datasets, and boosted regression trees for the lion dataset
because they are more powerful and require a larger dataset. These
approaches account for missing data, which were common with

3 | R E S U LT S
3.1 | Network analysis

some lion variables (i.e. prey species abundance). All covariates and
pairwise interactions were evaluated, and any covariate or interac-

The lion dataset comprised 42 years (1973–2014). The number of

tion of no predictive value in either machine learning model was ex-

prides per season ranged from 2 to 26, with the lowest counts in

cluded from subsequent GAMs, including all prey variables from the

the earlier years. Prides had, on average, 6.3 members (range: 2–21,

lion models. See Fountain-Jones et al. (2019) for more detail about

SD = 3.59). Most prides shared space to some extent with other

this analytical pipeline.

prides—on average each pride overlapped with 7–9 neighbouring

We anticipated temporal trends would account for a notable

prides (Figure 3a), and centrality and overlap estimates were moder-

portion of the variation in territory size and overlap. We were also

ate (Table S10). Closeness and betweenness centrality (Figure 3b,c),

particularly interested in the effect of CDV epizootics on spatial or-

and proportion disconnected (Figure 3e) did not differ substantially

ganization. Therefore, we constructed and compared three GAMs

between the wet and dry seasons. Mean degree (Figure 3a) and net-

to determine what covariates best captured variability in territory

work density (Figure 3d), however, were slightly higher in the wet

size and territory overlap. Our models were (in order of increasing

season.

complexity):

The wolf dataset comprised 20 years (1997–2016). The number
of packs per season ranged from 4 to 16, with the lowest counts in

1. Temporal trend only (temporal trend model, ‘null’ model),

earlier and later years. Packs had, on average, 10.0 members (range:

2. Temporal trend with CDV epizootic as a covariate (temporal

2–37; SD = 5.52). Most packs spatially overlapped with others; spa-

trend + CDV model), and
3. The complete model with all covariates considered to be of predictive value in the machine learning models (complete model).

tial overlap was greater in winter, which corresponds to a higher
network density (Figure 3d). Each pack's territory overlapped with
3–5 neighbouring packs on average (Figure 3a), yet closeness centrality was low (Figure 3c), indicating that overlap was generally low.

The seasonal component (wet/dry or winter/summer) was

There were stark differences in population attributes in the summer

modelled as a fixed effect. Tensor products were used as the

versus winter (Figure 2), with a higher mean degree (Figure 3a), den-

smoothing functions for each covariate because the covariates

sity (Figure 3d) and fewer disconnected packs (Figure 3e) in winter

were all on different scales. For the temporal trend model (model

(Table S10), but betweenness centrality was less variable across sea-

1) we allowed the year to be a smoothed Gaussian process basis

sons (Figure 3b).

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92

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93

out across the landscape, whereas in the dry season, lions congregate at watering holes or at good hunting locations with reliable
prey sources (Hopcraft, Sinclair, &amp; Packer, 2005; Kittle et al., 2016).
Wolves are more disconnected in summer likely because they
purposefully den away from other packs thus reducing contact
with neighbours, and prey are more spread out on the landscape
thereby reducing the need to hunt in the same areas (Kauffman
et al., 2007).
In both populations, there was a wide spread of seasonal betweenness centrality values, and about half of the values were
zero, indicating that peripheral groups were highly connected in
some seasons but not others (Figure 3b). The distribution of network density was fairly predictable within a season but differed
between seasons (Figure 3d); a greater proportion of edges were
realized in the wet (lions) and winter (wolves) seasons. In general, the lion population had a higher centrality and mean degree
than the wolf population, and some prides served as central hubs
in the network while other prides were weakly connected. The
wolf population in Yellowstone is characterized by many stable
but weak connections among packs, with a few important packs
serving as central hubs. In both populations, the most connected
groups were either the most centrally located or were groups
with a small territory that was predominantly shared with neighbouring groups.

3.2 | Lion statistical modelling results
Lion territories were larger when there were more prides on the
landscape and as overlap among prides increased. Mean territory size also grew the longer it had been since a CDV epizootic,
especially when 5 or more years had passed (Figure 4a; Figure
S8a). Territories were slightly larger in the wet season, and territories generally became larger through the time series. The complete model explained significantly more deviance (82.5%) in the
data compared to the temporal trend model (25.4%) or temporal
trend + CDV model (49.7%); thus the complete model was our top
model (Tables S2a–S5a).
The amount of territory overlap between a lion pride and neighbouring prides increased when the pride had more members, a
larger territory size, and when there were more prides on the landscape. Mean territory overlap was also higher the longer it had been
since a CDV epizootic, especially when 4 or more years had passed
F I G U R E 3 Density distributions of five network attributes: (a)
mean degree, (b) betweenness centrality, (c) closeness centrality,
(d) network density, (e) proportion disconnected, by season (wet/
winter = grey, dry/summer = black) for lions in Serengeti National
Park (1973–2014, left column) and wolves in Yellowstone National
Park (1997–2016, right column)

(Figure 4c; Figure S8b). The complete model was the top model
(Table S5b) and explained a large amount of deviance in pride overlap
(89.5%). The temporal trend model explained 39.6% of the deviance,
and the temporal trend + CDV model explained 63.8% of the deviance (Tables S3b and S4b).
The relationship between lion territory size and territory

Lions and wolves both experienced seasonal decreases in the

overlap was positive, and both territory size and overlap were

proportion of groups spatially connected—wet season in Serengeti

important predictors of the other (Figure S8). Adding CDV to the

and winter in Yellowstone (Figure 3e). Lion prides are more discon-

temporal models nearly doubled the deviance explained for both

nected in the wet season likely because prey and water are spread

territory size and overlap (Tables S3 and S4). Territory overlap

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

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F I G U R E 4 The percentage of deviance
explained by each term used in the (a, b)
territory size and (c, d) territory overlap
complete models (model 3) for (a, c)
lions in Serengeti and (b, d) wolves in
Yellowstone. Colour indicates the scale
or type of term: red, group-level; dark
grey, population-level; light blue, temporal
trends. Deviance explained was calculated
as the difference between the complete
model and the model with the covariate
of interest removed; the smoothing terms
from the complete model were used for
continuity

F I G U R E 5 (Top row) Serengeti
lion networks during the 1994 canine
distemper virus (CDV) epizootic and the
year post-epizootic (1995); coloured nodes
represent different prides, node size
represents territory size, and edge width
corresponds to total overlap between
territories. (bottom row) Boxplots
comparing four spatial or network
attributes— territory size, territory
overlap, degree and betweenness
centrality—between the epizootic year
(E, grey) and the post-epizootic year
(P, white). Network layouts are forcedirected (r package igraph; Csardi &amp;
Nepusz, 2006)

tended to increase as rainfall increased, and rain explained quite

expand their territories during the wet season and are more likely

a bit of the deviance; however, rain was not statistically signif-

to overlap with neighbouring prides. Interestingly, territory size

icant (Table S2b). Taken together, we can conclude that lions

and overlap increased as the number of prides grew, suggesting

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94

�that lions do not readily contract their territories as pride density
increases.

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95

top models; this was the most notable similarity between lion and
wolf modelling results (Figures S8 and S10). The population-level co-

We were particularly interested in the effect of CDV on lion

variates with the strongest influence on territory size and overlap

spatial organization, so we explored how spatial and network met-

included CDV epizootics (lions only) and precipitation as rain (lions

rics (i.e. territory size, territory overlap, degree and betweenness

only) or snow (wolves only). Generally, covariates shaping territory

centrality) changed the year following each CDV exposure period

size were similar to covariates shaping territory overlap, although

(Figure 5; Figure S5; Supporting Information: Post hoc mecha-

the magnitude of the covariates’ importance differed.

nism exploration). We found that changes in territory size, overlap
and degree were the most extreme following the 1994 epizootic
(Figure 5; Figure S5); for instance, about 85% prides decreased ter-

4 | D I S CU S S I O N

ritory overlap with other prides by at least 10%, and about 62% of
prides decreased their degree and territory size by at least 10%.

We assessed how environmental factors, biotic interactions and in-

After the 1998 epizootic, lions similarly decreased their territory

fectious disease epizootics alter network topology and drive the sea-

size, overlap and degree.

sonal territory patterns of two social carnivores—lions in Serengeti
National Park and wolves in Yellowstone National Park. Lion popula-

3.3 | Wolf statistical modelling results

tions were highly connected with some prides serving as hubs connecting peripheral prides; wolf packs were weakly connected, but
these connections were quite stable through time. Covariates shap-

Temporal trends (season and year) were the only significant covari-

ing territory size were similar to covariates shaping territory overlap,

ates predicting wolf territory size (Figure 4b; Tables S6a–S8a), and

although the magnitude of the covariates’ importance differed in

they explained 79.4% of the deviance in territory sizes (Table S6a).

each model. The results of this study provide insights into how: (a)

The complete model had the lowest AIC value, but all models were

the number of groups in a population, (b) territory size and overlap

within ~3 ΔAIC because temporal trends dominated (Table S9a).

and (c) disease perturbations might impact space use.

Wolf pack territory overlap increased when there were more packs

First, we found that the number of groups in a study area or pop-

on the landscape, population density increased, and pack size was larger

ulation was unequivocally important in shaping spatial organization.

(Figure 4d; Table S6b). The relationship between territory overlap and

This is important because, for social species like lions and wolves,

population density was nonlinear such that overlap increased as popula-

groups act as the functional units comprising the population. Groups

tion density increased until about 90 wolves/1,000-km2, then stabilized.

raise offspring and compete for territories and resources, and the

Mean territory overlap was higher in the winter, which corresponded

fitness of solitary individuals is often drastically reduced (Almberg

with larger territory size and snow, both of which were significant predic-

et al., 2015; Packer &amp; Ruttan, 1988; Packer et al., 1990). More re-

tors. The complete model was the top model (Table S9b) and it explained

cent research describing the spatial and social processes of group-

95.0% of the deviance, which was a large improvement from the tempo-

living territorial species has benefitted from explicit consideration of

ral trend model (52.4%, Table S7b) and the temporal trend + CDV model

groups (e.g. spinner dolphins: Karczmarski, Würsig, Gailey, Larson, &amp;

(53.8%, Table S8b).

Vanderlip, 2005; orcas: Baird &amp; Whitehead, 2000, primates: Kasper

There was a slight increasing trend in territory overlap throughout

&amp; Voelkl, 2009, spotted hyenas: Ilany, Booms, &amp; Holekamp, 2015;

the time series. Territory size declined in the early years as wolves es-

meerkats: Bateman, Lewis, Gall, Manser, &amp; Clutton-Brock, 2015 and

tablished territories following reintroduction, and then territory sizes

some birds: Ke, Deng, Guo, &amp; Huang, 2017). Our results therefore

slowly increased and potentially stabilized in recent years (Figures S10

support the growing focus of conservation and management for so-

and S11). This pattern tracks trends in population size: rapid increase

cial species on maintaining viable groups.

followed by a decline and stabilization (Figure S1). Wolf spatial organi-

Second, lion and wolf territory size and overlap had a complex

zation was driven seasonally such that territory size and overlap were

relationship that suggested that as a territory grows, so does terri-

both greater in the winter, yet as snow levels increased and limited wolf

tory overlap and vice versa. If groups had more neighbouring groups,

movement, overlap declined. The relationship between territory size

then overlap was more likely to increase. This implies that groups

and overlap was positive, although territory size was more important

were not as good at maintaining territory boundaries when they

for predicting territory overlap than overlap was for predicting size.

had to travel more widely across larger territories and when there

These results suggest that territory size is highly predictable by season,

were more potential intruders in close proximity. Importantly, this

whereas territory overlap generally increases as territory size increases

relationship was influenced by season, which likely relates to re-

but is modulated by the number of packs in the population, snow level

source availability and resource dispersion since prey are migratory

and population size.

in both systems. In particular, prey are aggregated on the landscape

Generally, group-level covariates shaped territory attributes

within specific habitats with respect to season. For example, when

more than population-level for both lions and wolves (Figure 4;

elk are scarce, wolf packs in Yellowstone utilize overlapping hunting

Tables S2 and S6). We found that the number of groups in the popu-

areas due to favourable topography and elk occurrence (Kauffman

lation was significant with relatively large effects in three of the four

et al., 2007), and this a likely mechanism for increasing territory

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

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BRANDELL et al.

overlap. Yet elk density was not significant in our wolf territory size

for lions following the 1994 epizootic, female Tasmanian devils de-

and overlap models, indicating that elk density does not necessarily

creased their home range size and home range overlap following a

capture the heterogeneous distribution of elk.

large-scale outbreak of facial tumour disease (Comte et al., 2020).

Resource dispersion is the prevailing hypothesis for the evolu-

Such disease-induced behavioural changes can have significant im-

tion of territoriality (Johnson, Kays, Blackwell, &amp; Macdonald, 2002;

pacts on subsequent transmission dynamics. For instance, when

Maher &amp; Lott, 2000; Ostfeld, 1985). Yet there are other plausible driv-

raccoons are infected with rabies, individual movement may de-

ers of spatial organization, such as kinship (Frase &amp; Armitage, 1984;

cline due to impaired mobility, which can alter epizootic size and

Pravosudova, Grubb, &amp; Parker, 2001; Rogers, 1987), land tenure

spread (Reynolds, Hirsch, Gehrt, &amp; Craft, 2015). While we lack the

(Benson, Chamberlain, &amp; Leopold, 2004; Elbroch, Lendrum, Quigley,

data to distinguish between mechanisms underlying changes in

&amp; Caragiulo, 2016) and protection of young or infanticide (Smith

spatial organization, our results support the importance of incor-

et al., 2015; Wolff &amp; Peterson, 1998). These drivers are not mutually

porating spatial and behavioural ecology into studies of pathogen

exclusive and their relationship can be complex. For example, cougar

transmission dynamics.

(Puma concolor) territories are well described by resource dispersion,

Changes in space use may also result from competition (Apps,

and individuals often utilize territory vacated by a cougar of the same

McLellan, &amp; Woods, 2006). Top predators have been shown to

sex (Elbroch et al., 2016). The strong influence of season in shaping

alter sympatric carnivore species’ space use (reviewed in Davis

wolf spatial organization implies that resource dispersion is an im-

et al., 2018; Wang, Allen, &amp; Wilmers, 2020). Both lions and wolves

portant driver of space use. African lions are tolerant of dispersing

have a larger effect on the space use patterns of other carnivores

daughters, which frequently bud off from existing prides and occupy

(e.g. spotted hyenas, cheetahs, coyotes, cougars) rather than the

neighbouring territories where they show considerable overlap with

other way around; this has been described for lions in the Serengeti

their mothers’ range for the first 2–5 years but decline by 10 years

system (Kittle et al., 2016; Swanson, Arnold, Kosmala, Forester, &amp;

post-dispersal (VanderWaal et al., 2009); this indicates kin relation-

Packer, 2016; Vanak et al., 2013) and wolves in the northern Rocky

ships among lions may be an important driver of spatial organization.

Mountains (Bartnick, Van Deelen, Quigley, &amp; Craighead, 2013;

Third, we identified changes in lion spatial organization following

Berger &amp; Gese, 2007; Kortello, Hurd, &amp; Murray, 2007). Therefore,

the 1994 CDV epizootic that were not observed for wolves (Figure 5).

we do not believe that the occurrence of other species would have a

We postulate that differences in space use arose in part from the

substantial impact on lion and wolf spatial organization.

fact that the major die-off in the lion population killed individuals
of all age classes, at least partially due to a coinfection (Munson
et al., 2008; Roelke-Parker et al., 1996), whereas CDV epizootics

4.1 | Data limitations and future directions

in the wolf population primarily affected mostly pups and yearlings
(Almberg et al., 2009). The loss of adult lions that maintain terri-

Our analyses might have been strengthened by more locations per

tory boundaries may have been a contributing covariate to prides’

group per season, which could increase the precision of our territory

contraction in space (Heinsohn, Packer, &amp; Pusey, 1996; McComb,

estimates (Seaman et al., 1999). Additionally, more detailed data on

Packer, &amp; Pusey, 1994; Mosser &amp; Packer, 2009). As social species,

prey distribution in both Serengeti and Yellowstone may have im-

which individuals die within a group can have disproportionate im-

proved our models. Other studies demonstrated a shift in Serengeti

pacts on the behaviour of group members (i.e. ‘social disruption’;

lion territories as they follow prey migration, resulting in annual

e.g. Borg, Brainerd, Meier, &amp; Prugh, 2015). Social species such as

territory overlap that is not necessarily simultaneous, or territories

lions (Davidson, Valeix, Loveridge, Madzikanda, &amp; Macdonald, 2011;

with little overlap where prey abundance is high (reviewed in Hanby,

Heinsohn &amp; Packer, 1995), wolves (Borg et al., 2015), whales (Wade,

Bygott, &amp; Packer, 1995). Wolves in Yellowstone may shift their space

Reeves, &amp; Mesnick, 2012) and badgers (Carter et al., 2007) exhibit

use patterns to improve access to elk (Kauffman et al., 2007). We

behavioural changes (e.g. territory reconfiguration, dispersal, group

were unable to assess this because our prey data were at the scale

dissolution) following the death (e.g. due to harvest, cull, disease) of

of the study area, and annual prey counts may not explain the spatial

group members. However, social disruption mechanisms would not

and seasonal distribution of prey on the landscape and hence access

explain the effect we observed of CDV epizootics with limited mor-

to prey for these territorial species. Gathering more detailed data at

tality in lions, such as in 1998.

the group-level is an area of future research.

Infectious diseases such as CDV can alter the behaviour of in-

Another area for future research is the impact of human ac-

fected individuals. CDV infection may impede movement through

tivities and tourism on lion and wolf space use. Human activity

symptoms such as muscle tremors and lethargy, which could subse-

has been shown to affect carnivore movement and space use

quently lead to the reductions in territory size and overlap we ob-

(Boydston, Kapheim, Szykman, &amp; Holekamp, 2003; Foster, Harmsen,

served. Sick or weakened animals may behaviourally avoid healthy

&amp; Doncaster, 2010; Ordiz, Støen, Delibes, &amp; Swenson, 2011; Smith,

animals in order to reduce their risk of injury during an aggressive

Suraci, et al., 2017; Zeller, Wattles, Conlee, &amp; Destefano, 2019), how-

intergroup encounter. Alternatively, infectious diseases may also

ever, this has not been comprehensively assessed in either Serengeti

alter the behaviour of healthy individuals, as observed in guppies

lions or Yellowstone wolves and we were unable to include it in our

Poecilia reticulata (Houde &amp; Torio, 1992). Similar to our observations

analysis.

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96

�5 | CO N C LU S I O N S
In summary, we identified ecological drivers shaping the seasonal
space use of two apex territorial species. While there is abundant
literature about the effects of spatial or social organization on population dynamics in free-ranging animals (e.g. pathogen transmission, reviewed in White, Forester, &amp; Craft, 2017; carnivore sociality,
Tichon, Gilchrist, Rotem, Ward, &amp; Spiegel, 2020), there have been
few attempts to elucidate drivers of mammalian spatial organization as we have done here. Our work highlights the importance of
monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group
level. We found that resource dispersion may be more important for
driving territory size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Finally,
canine distemper epizootics may alter lion spatial organization, suggesting the importance of including infectious disease epizootics in
studies of behavioural and movement ecology. We hope that future
research builds off of this work to elucidate the complex relationships between a population's demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic and biotic conditions and pathogen infections.
AU T H O R S ' C O N T R I B U T I O N S
E.E.B., N.M.F.-J., M.L.J.G. and M.E.C. designed the project; E.E.B.
created the networks, performed all network analyses and wrote
the manuscript; N.M.F.-J. developed and analysed the GAMs;
C.P., D.W.S. and D.R.S. provided long-term datasets. All authors
contributed substantially to the intellectual development of the
project and manuscript revision. The authors claim no conflicts of
interest.
DATA AVA I L A B I L I T Y S TAT E M E N T
Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi.org/
10.5061/dryad.vq83b​k3qd (Brandell et al., 2020).
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2698-7013

Ellen E. Brandell

Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones

https://orcid.

org/0000-0001-9248-8493
Paul C. Cross

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8045-5213

Craig Packer

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3939-8162

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S U P P O R T I N G I N FO R M AT I O N
Additional supporting information may be found online in the
Supporting Information section.

How to cite this article: Brandell EE, Fountain-Jones NM,
Gilbertson MLJ, et al. Group density, disease, and season shape
territory size and overlap of social carnivores. J Anim Ecol.
2021;90:87–101. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13294

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Journal of Animal Ecology

BRANDELL et al.

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&lt;li&gt;The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information, behaviour and pathogens. Group territory size and territory overlap and components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates and environmental risk (e.g. indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality and behaviour can also shape space use, and subsequently, how space use and habitat quality together impact demography.&lt;/li&gt;&#13;
&lt;li&gt;Our study aims to identify factors shaping the spatial organization of wildlife populations and assess the impact of epizootics on space use. We further aim to explore the mechanisms by which disease perturbations could cause changes in spatial organization.&lt;/li&gt;&#13;
&lt;li&gt;Here we assessed the seasonal spatial organization of Serengeti lions and Yellowstone wolves at the group level. We use network analysis to describe spatial organization and connectivity of social groups. We then examine the factors predicting mean territory size and mean territory overlap for each population using generalized additive models.&lt;/li&gt;&#13;
&lt;li&gt;We demonstrate that lions and wolves were similar in that group-level factors, such as number of groups and shaped spatial organization more than population-level factors, such as population density. Factors shaping territory size were slightly different than factors shaping territory overlap; for example, wolf pack size was an important predictor of territory overlap, but not territory size. Lion spatial networks were more highly connected, while wolf spatial networks varied seasonally. We found that resource dispersion may be more important for driving territory size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Additionally, canine distemper epizootics may have altered lion spatial organization, highlighting the importance of including infectious disease epizootics in studies of behavioural and movement ecology.&lt;/li&gt;&#13;
&lt;li&gt;We provide insight about when we might expect to observe the impacts of resource dispersion, disease perturbations, and other ecological factors on spatial organization. Our work highlights the importance of monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group level. Future research should elucidate the complex relationships between demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic and biotic conditions and pathogen infections.&lt;/li&gt;&#13;
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              <text>Brandell, E. E., N. M. Fountain‐Jones, M. L. Gilbertson, P. C. Cross, P. J. Hudson, D. W. Smith, D. R. Stahler, C. Packer, and M. E. Craft. 2021. Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and overlap of social carnivores. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90(1):87-101. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13294</text>
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