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                  <text>COLORADO
Parks and Wildlife
Department of Natural Resources

CPW Research Library
317 W. Prospect Road

Fort Collins, CO 80526
https: //cow.catalog. aspencat.i nf o

One or more of the authors of this paper is a Colorado Parks and Wildlife employee. This is an open
access journal article, archived on the CPW Digital Collections site as part of the CPW scholarly research
archive.

�1')
Received: 8 September 2023

Revised: 14 November 2023

Check for updates

Accepted: 17 November 2023

DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4799

ECOSPHERE

ARTICLE

AN ESA OPEN ACCESS JOURNAL

Disease Ecology

Warm places, warm years, and warm seasons increase
parasitizing of moose by winter ticks
Nicholas J. DeCesare 1 | Richard B. Harris 1 | M. Paul Atwood 2 |
Eric J. Bergman 3 | Alyson B. Courtemanch 4 f&gt; | Paul C. Cross 5 |
Gary L. Fralick 4 | Kent R. Hersey 6 | Mark A. Hurley 2 | Troy M. Koser 7 |
Rebecca L. Levine 8 f&gt; | Kevin L. Monteith 8 | Jesse R. Newby 9 |
Collin J. Peterson 9 |

Samuel Robertson 6 |

Benjamin L. Wise 4

1

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks,
Missoula, Montana, USA

2

Idaho Department of Fish and Game,
Boise, Idaho, USA

3

Colorado Parks and Wildlife,
Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

4

Wyoming Game and Fish Department,
Jackson, Wyoming, USA

5

U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky
Mountain Science Center, Bozeman,
Montana, USA

6

Utah Division of Wildlife Resources,
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

7

Montana State University, Bozeman,
Montana, USA

8

University of Wyoming, Laramie,
Wyoming, USA

9

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks,
Dillon, Montana, USA

Abstract
Observed links between parasites, such as ticks, and climate change have
aroused concern for human health, wildlife population dynamics, and broader
ecosystem effects. The one-host life history of the winter tick (Dermacentor
albipictus) links each annual cohort to environmental conditions during three
specific time periods when they are predictably vulnerable: spring detachment
from hosts, summer larval stage, and fall questing for hosts. We used
mixed-effects generalized linear models to investigate the drivers of tick loads
carried by moose (Alces alces) relative to these time periods and across
750 moose, 10 years, and 16 study areas in the western United States. We tested
for the effects of biotic factors (moose density, shared winter range, vegetation,
migratory behavior) and weather conditions (temperature, snow, humidity) during each seasonal period when ticks are vulnerable and off-host. We found that
warm climatic regions, warm seasonal periods across multiple partitions of the
annual tick life cycle, and warm years relative to long-term averages each contributed to increased tick loads. We also found important effects of snow and

Correspondence
Nicholas J. DeCesare
Email: ndecesare@mt.gov

other biotic factors such as host density and vegetation. Tick loads in the west-

Funding information
Hunting and Fishing Licenses; Moose
Hunting Licenses; Federal Aid in Wildlife
Restoration; Safari Club International
Foundation; National Climate Adaptation
Science Center; UW-NPS Research
Station; Wyoming Governors Big Game
License Coalition; Wyoming Game and
Fish Department

uals may be sufficient to cause mortality. Lastly, we found interannual variation
in tick loads to be most correlated with spring snowpack, suggesting this envi-

ern United States were, on average, lower than those where tick-related die-offs
in moose populations have occurred recently, but loads carried by some individ-

ronmental component may have the highest potential to induce change in tick
load dynamics in the immediate future of this region.
KEYWORDS
Alces alces, climate change, Dermacentor albipictus, moose, parasite, snow, temperature,
weather, winter tick

Handling Editor: Shannon L. LaDeau
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original work is properly cited.
© 2024 The Authors. Ecosphere published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.
Ecosphere. 2024;15:e4799.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4799

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/r/ecs2

1 of 15

�INTRODUCTION
Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) populations and associated
tick-borne disease are of increasing concern from both
human health and ecosystem function perspectives.
Shifts in geographic range and abundance may result
from global climate change, although dynamics are complex and inferring cause and effect is difficult (Brunner
et al., 2023; Gilbert, 2021). Northward expansion of
several tick species in North America and Europe
(Leighton et al., 2012) has been associated with warming
temperatures and lengthened seasons of reproduction
and questing, furthering concerns about their effects on
both human and nonhuman hosts (Nuttall, 2022).
Mechanisms behind widespread change include multiple
pathways linking warmer temperatures to more successful tick populations in temperate regions (Ogden &amp;
Lindsay, 2016). Other weather parameters such as
humidity and precipitation can also affect tick population
parameters, as well as changes in host population dynamics and distributions (Elias et al., 2021).
Whereas multiple tick species carry pathogens of
importance to human health (Dantas-Torres et al., 2012),
the winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) instead is notable
for its effects on wildlife, in particular ungulates
(hoofed-mammals). Winter ticks parasitize multiple ungulate species across North America (Chenery et al., 2023) but
have most strongly affected moose (Alces alces) populations
(Welch et al., 1991). Epizootics of winter ticks have been
linked to decreased calf survival and population performance in New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont (DeBow
et al., 2021; Ellingwood et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2019), as
well as to moose population crashes in Alberta (Samuel,
2007). Furthermore, the conservation status of moose in
North America is increasingly precarious, with substantial
population declines recently documented in portions of
their southerly distribution (DeBow et al., 2021; Ellingwood
et al., 2020; Harris et al., 2021; Lenarz et al., 2010; Murray
et al., 2006; Nadeau et al., 2017). Common themes
explaining such declines have invoked indirect effects of climate mediated by behavioral trade-offs, changes in forage
nutrition, and parasitism (Ellingwood et al., 2020; Hoy
et al., 2022; Monteith et al., 2015). In particular, the negative effects of warming temperatures on moose may be indirectly mediated by parasites, which themselves have
complex responses to climate change (Pickles et al., 2013).
Winter ticks complete their life cycle on a single host,
questing for hosts as larvae each autumn, living and feeding on hosts throughout winter where they molt twice
into nymph and adult life stages, and finally detaching to
lay eggs in the spring (Addison &amp; McLoughlin, 1988;
Leal et al., 2020). This one-host strategy links the
survival of each winter tick cohort to environmental

DECESARE ET AL.

conditions during three specific time periods when they
are predictably vulnerable: spring detachment and
egg-laying, summer larval stage, and fall questing.
Research in moose–winter tick systems has suggested
that relatively warm or snow-free conditions during
spring detachment and fall questing periods can increase
off-host tick survival and host attachment rates, thus
leading to higher tick loads on moose (Drew &amp; Samuel,
1986; Powers &amp; Pekins, 2020; Samuel, 2007), and that
such warm conditions have occurred more frequently in
recent years (Ellingwood et al., 2020). Desiccation of eggs
and larvae during summer and fall may also limit tick
populations in some habitats (Addison et al., 2016; Yoder
et al., 2016). Winter tick populations can also vary across
vegetation types (Powers &amp; Pekins, 2020) and with the
densities of the host moose population (Samuel, 2007).
In relatively xeric environments of the western
United States, winter ticks are known to parasitize moose,
but evidence is mixed regarding the intensity of infections
and demographic effects. Moose population growth rates
in Utah were correlated with prior climatic patterns of
summer rainfall and late-winter snow cover, which
Ruprecht et al. (2020) attributed to climate-mediated links
between populations of ticks and moose. High tick loads
were also associated with the mortality of some individual
adult moose in Washington (Harris et al., 2021). In contrast, Newby and DeCesare (2020) did not find evidence of
tick-related effects on moose pregnancy rates in three
Montana study areas. We currently lack research that clarifies conditions under which some moose in the mountainous west become heavily infested by winter ticks
whereas others are unaffected. To that end, we investigated tick loads carried by moose across multiple years
and study areas spread across the western United States
with the objective of elucidating biotic and abiotic drivers
of tick abundance. The counts of ticks on free-ranging
moose are costly and time-intensive, but pooling data
across multiple study areas and jurisdictions offered us a
powerful and wide-ranging assessment of variation in tick
loads in this less-studied ecoregion. Specifically, our objective was to quantify the spatiotemporal drivers of variation
in tick loads carried by moose across the western
United States, including the hypothesized effects of spatial
variation in climate, annual variation in weather, host
density, and migration behavior.

M A TER IA L S A N D M E T H O D S
Study areas
We collected tick load data from free-ranging moose during research operations in 16 study areas distributed

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2 of 15

�3 of 15

deciduous dominants in wetter habitats. Foraging habitat for moose typically included willow (Salix spp.),
often identified as the most frequently consumed plant
in western North America (Nadeau et al., 2017).
However, in warmer, more xeric study areas, moose forage habitat also featured shrubs such as serviceberry
(Amelanchier spp.), dogwood (Cornus spp.), mountain
mahogany (Cercocarpus spp.), and chokecherry (Prunus
virginiana).

among montane regions of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming,
Utah, and Colorado during 2013–2022 (Table 1,
Figure 1). In most cases, capture locations were aggregated within discrete study areas by design. In Idaho,
where data collection was instead more widely dispersed,
we aggregated samples into six study areas by geographically combining moose from adjacent management units
to facilitate our statistical treatment of study areas as
sources of spatial structure. Climate and vegetative conditions in the 16 study areas varied spatially and seasonally
(see Nadeau et al., 2017). Elevations were generally
highest in the Colorado study areas, followed by the
Wyoming, Utah, Montana, and Idaho study areas, respectively. Mean temperatures across data collection locations
ranged from −7.5 to 0.03� C during the spring drop-off
period (15 March–30 April), from 4.85 to 10.38� C during
the late summer (1 August–14 September), and from
−3.59 to 0.65� C during the fall questing period
(15 September–30 November; Appendix S1: Table S1).
Moose generally inhabited riparian valley bottoms
and mountains coniferous forests (dominated by Pinus
spp., Abies spp., Picea spp., Psuedotsuga menziesii, and
in the most mesic study areas, Thuja plicata and Tsuga
heterophylla). Aspen (Populus tremuloides) and black
cottonwood (P. trichocarpa) were frequent overstory
TABLE 1
analyses.
Study area

Tick load data and hypothesized covariates
We captured 750 adult moose (aged 1 or older) during
winter (December, 13%; January, 52%; February, 20%;
March, 16%), a period when winter ticks are reliably
found on their hosts (Figure 2). Having no evidence of
sex-based difference in tick infestation or its correlates
(Appendix S1: Table S2), we included adult moose of
both sexes (females = 732, males = 18) but excluded
calves (DeBow et al., 2021; Sine et al., 2009). Across studies, moose were captured using a variety of methods
including physical restraint via helicopter net-gunning
and chemical immobilization via darting from both
ground and helicopter following approved animal care

Sample sizes of moose (aged 1+) captured during winters 2013–2022 on which ticks were counted, and which entered the

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CONE

0

16

28

CONW

0

16

36

COSW

0

12

ID1

0

ID10
ID51

9

0

19

8

0

5

19

15

15

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

ID6

0

0

0

ID66

0

0

0

ID76

2019

2020

2021

2022

Total

0

0

0

80

0

0

0

91

0

0

0

0

32

0

0

14

0

0

14

0

5

0

8

0

0

13

0

0

0

13

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

16

0

0

16

0

0

0

0

20

0

0

20

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

0

0

10

MTBH

12

18

6

4

7

8

6

6

7

0

74

MTCA

11

7

12

0

10

7

6

8

6

0

67

MTEF

11

8

6

5

7

11

9

4

11

0

72

UTNS

0

0

0

0

40

22

20

0

0

0

82

UTWS

0

0

0

0

41

22

21

5

0

0

89

WYJA

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

5

8

19

WYME

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

16

24

18

58

34

77

103

23

110

113

85

126

53

26

750

Total

Note: Study area abbreviations are: CONE, Colorado Northeast; CONW, Colorado Northwest; COSW, Colorado Southwest; ID1, Idaho northern panhandle;
ID10, Idaho Clearwater River area; ID51, Idaho south-central; ID6, Idaho central panhandle; ID66, Idaho Targhee area; ID76, Idaho southeast; MTBH,
Montana Big Hole Valley; MTCA, Montana Cabinet Mountains; MTEF, Montana East Front; UTNS, Utah North Slope; UTWS, Utah Wasatch Range; WYJA,
Wyoming Jackson Hole; WYME, Wyoming Meeteetse.

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ECOSPHERE

�DECESARE ET AL.

112°w

116°W

108°W

104°W

50° N

CANADA
UNITED STATES

Montana

Wyoming
0

.,

~-;:01 - ----.,..--L_J
Utah

0

Colorado

38° N

0

FIGURE 1

Moose capture locations

0

150

300Km

Moose capture locations where tick load data were collected in the western United States, 2013–2022.

and use protocols (e.g., Newby &amp; DeCesare, 2020;
FWP12-2012). Suitable tick load data were collected using
quadrats or line transects through parted hair of moose
along the rump, scapular, and/or loin regions following
Sine et al. (2009). Protocols of individual studies varied in
which sections of moose were sampled (nrump = 738,
nscapula = 472, nloin = 472). We restricted our analyses to
counts of ticks on each moose’s rump because the majority of records included it. For 12 moose from Idaho study
areas that lacked tick counts from their rump areas but
had corresponding counts from their scapular areas, we
imputed rump tick counts from a model predicting rump

counts from scapular counts from all sampled moose
(Appendix S1: Figure S1).
We investigated the putative drivers of winter tick
loads on moose by evaluating four suites of candidate
models, each corresponding to a hypothesized source of
variation in tick loads throughout the annual life cycle
of winter ticks (Figure 2, Table 2). First, we hypothesized
that tick loads could vary due to the intrinsic characteristics of moose individuals and populations during the
years of study. In this suite of models, we considered relative moose density (Bergeron &amp; Pekins, 2014; Samuel,
2007), spatial overlap on winter range shared with other

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4 of 15

�5 of 15

Data collection, captures
DEC-MAR

/

-Jg/Ff

/

'

'

/

/

I

I

I

F I G U R E 2 Schematic diagram of seasonal periods of study relating the life cycle of winter ticks during three off-host periods (spring
drop-off, summer larvae, and fall questing) to on-host measurements of tick loads on moose collected during live-capture efforts, western
United States, 2013–2022.

T A B L E 2 Weather-related predictors considered in suites of candidate models during each of the three seasons, defined in terms of the
life history of the winter tick–moose interaction.
Hypothesized weather predictor

Spring drop-off

Proportion of days with snow cover

✓

✓

Snow water equivalent mid-way in period

✓

✓

Snow water equivalent at end of period

✓

✓

✓
�

Days with temperature &lt;0 C
�

Days with temperature &lt;−20 C

Fall questing

✓

Cumulative precipitation (including quadratic)
Mean temperature

Summer larvae

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

Minimum relative humidity (including quadratic)

✓

✓

Maximum relative humidity (including quadratic)

✓

✓

ungulates (deer [Odocoileus spp.] or elk [Cervus elaphus])
that could serve as additional hosts (Welch et al., 1991),
vegetation type (Addison et al., 2016; Drew &amp; Samuel,
1986; Healy et al., 2018; Powers &amp; Pekins, 2020), and
individual moose migratory behavior (Blouin et al., 2021;
Healy et al., 2018; Table 2). We characterized vegetation
type at each capture site according to year-specific land
cover data using the International Geosphere Biosphere
Programme (IGBP) global vegetation classification of the

moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)
land cover product (MCD12Q1) at a 500 × 500 m resolution, following Liang et al. (2015). We simplified the six
land cover types identified in the study areas (evergreen
forest, woody savanna, savanna, grassland, cropland, and
urban) into two land cover categories by aggregating
together the first three (forest) and the latter three
(open). We used expert opinion to characterize individual
moose as being located within areas of low (&lt;0.21),

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ECOSPHERE

�medium (between 0.21 and 0.41), or high (&gt;0.41)
adult females per square kilometer, following quantitative delineation of moose densities with focus on adult
females by Schmidt et al. (2007). When categorizing
density, we relied on a rubric to standardize information
and increase repeatability across study sites and to focus
our treatment of density on relatively local (i.e., the size
of individual home ranges) areas surrounding each capture location. Specifically, we imagined overlaying a
5 × 5 km neighborhood surrounding each winter capture
location and the biologist with field experience in
each area estimated how many adult female moose
would be found in that neighborhood; our low-density
category corresponded to ≤5 cows sharing that 25-km2
neighborhood, medium density to 6–10 cows sharing that
neighborhood, and high density to &gt;10. We similarly
included a binary categorical variable concerning
whether moose shared their winter range with deer or
elk populations of equal or greater abundance based on
field experience in each study area. We treated seasonal
migration as a proxy for spatial overlap of individual
moose during the tick drop-off and questing seasons,
and assigned “resident,” “migratory,” or “unknown”
categorical depictions of migration behavior according to
project-specific spatial analyses or subjective assessments
of seasonal movements. We assumed that migration
behavior subsequent to capture was an adequate proxy
for behavior during the year prior to capture, when
measured tick loads would have accumulated on
each moose.
Second, we hypothesized that winter tick loads could
vary due to prevailing weather conditions during spring
tick drop-off season (15 March–30 April), roughly
9–12 months prior to the winter when counts on moose
were obtained (Figure 2, Table 2). Previous studies have
shown that survival of adult female ticks after they drop
from hosts in spring is depressed by cold temperatures
(Drew &amp; Samuel, 1986; Wilton &amp; Garner, 1993) and snow
cover (DelGiudice et al., 1997; Drew &amp; Samuel, 1986;
Ruprecht et al., 2020). We considered models containing
all additive combinations of a suite of predictor variables
related to temperature and snow cover during this time
period (Table 2).
Third, we hypothesized that winter tick loads may
vary according to survival of off-host tick larvae during
late summer (1 August–14 September; Figure 2, Table 2).
Larvae of many tick species are considered vulnerable to
desiccation during hot and dry conditions (Addison et al.,
2016; Leal et al., 2020), but warmer temperatures may
also accelerate egg development and improve survival
(Hoy et al., 2021). Here, we considered models containing
all additive combinations of predictor variables related to
precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity during

DECESARE ET AL.

the late summer period (Addison et al., 2016; Leal et al.,
2020; Yoder et al., 2016; Table 2).
Fourth, we hypothesized that winter tick loads may
be driven by weather conditions during the prior autumn
questing period (15 September–30 November; Figure 2,
Table 2). In this suite of models, we considered the
general hypotheses that tick abundance would be
affected by temperature (Addison et al., 2016; Samuel,
2007), presence of snow (Holmes et al., 2018; Power &amp;
Pekins, 2020; Samuel, 2007), and relative humidity
(Addison et al., 2016; Leal et al., 2020; Table 2).

Quantifying environmental conditions
We obtained weather data for each year, season, and
moose capture location using publicly available gridded
meteorological data from multiple sources. We quantified temperature as the mean of daily low temperatures
across each of the late summer, questing, and drop-off
periods using Daymet version 4 revision 1 data at a
1 × 1 km resolution (Thornton et al., 2022), accessed via
the R package (Hufkens et al., 2018; R Core Team,
2018). To capture potential threshold effects of cold temperatures during the questing and drop-off seasons, we
also used the same Daymet data to measure the number
of days with low temperatures below thresholds of
0 (Powers &amp; Pekins, 2020) and −20� C (Holmes et al.,
2018). We also used multiple metrics to characterize the
presence and amount of snow over time and space. We
estimated the proportion of days with measurable snow
across questing and drop-off periods according to daily
gridded measures of normalized difference snow index
(NDSI) detections of snow cover from MODIS version
6 MOD10A1 (Terra) and MYD10A1 (Aqua) data at a
500 × 500 m resolution (Hall et al., 2006). We merged
Terra and Aqua NDSI data according to the maximum
snow cover value measured between each platform per
day (Tran et al., 2019) and used a threshold NDSI value
of 0.1 to distinguish snow from non-snow, following
Hussainzada et al. (2021). We also characterized the
amount of snow using estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) during the mid-point and end point of both
the drop-off and questing periods using daily SWE data
from Daymet V4R1 at 1 × 1 km resolution. We quantified daily minimum and maximum relative humidity
during the late summer and questing seasons using
daily minimum and maximum estimates of vapor pressure deficit and temperature produced by the
parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes
model (PRISM) Climate Group at 4 × 4 km resolution
(PRISM Climate Group, 2023) and following equations
of Daly et al. (2015). Lastly, we used daily precipitation

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6 of 15

�data from PRISM, also at 4 × 4 km resolution, to quantify
the total precipitation during the late summer period.

Statistical analyses
We fit candidate models using generalized linear
mixed-effects models with negative binomial structures,
considering ticks counted in the rump area as the
response variable and hypothesized independent variables as fixed factor predictors. To account for heterogeneity in sampling conditions and dates, we included
Julian date nested within study areas as random intercepts in all models. Julian date was included to account
for additional variation or noise in tick load data
resulting from variation across study areas and individual
moose in the date of capture and measurement. Because
response variables were integer counts but the area sampled on each moose varied, we included the logarithm of
area sampled on each moose as offset terms in all models.
We confirmed the absence of overdispersion in model
residuals using the program DHARMa version 0.4.6
(Residual Diagnostics for Hierarchical Multi-level/Mixed;
Hartig, 2021). To avoid multicollinearity within models,
we added predictors to existing models only when
uncorrelated (r &lt; 0.5) with those already present, and we
ensured variance inflation factors (VIF) for all covariates
were &lt;3. Because previous research had suggested that
larval questing peaked at intermediate values of relative
humidity (Leal et al., 2020), we included quadratic terms
when examining both relative humidity and
precipitation.
Models were fit using maximum likelihood procedures and ranked within each hypothesis-specific suite of
candidate models using corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). We constructed each of the four candidate
suites by considering univariate models first, and then
adding all other hypothesized predictors that met our collinearity criteria in manual forward stepping fashion.
After developing hypothesis-specific final models related
to each of our four hypotheses, we used similar procedures to identify an overall top model among candidate
combinations
of
elements
of
the
four
hypothesis-specific sets.
Lastly, we also strove to understand the extent to
which tick load variation was driven by broad spatial variation in climate among sites versus annual variation in
weather within sites. To quantify the additive contribution of annual weather variation to the underlying climatic heterogeneity inherent in our study areas, we
examined a variant of our top model in which
we replaced weather covariate data with deviations from
their respective study area means during 2013–2022. We

7 of 15

estimated the proportion of variance explained by
top-ranked models using Nakagawa’s approximate R 2
(Nakagawa et al., 2017). Generalized linear mixed-effects
models were fit using glmmTMB version 1.1.5 (Brooks
et al., 2017) and evaluated with Performance (Lüdecke
et al., 2021), each implemented in R version 4.2.2 (R Core
Team, 2018).

RESULTS
We found support for a number of metrics quantifying
each of our four hypothesized drivers of winter tick loads
on moose. The top model describing the effects of biotic
factors on winter tick loads included positive effects of
moose density, shared winter range with other wild
ungulates, and “open” vegetation types (Table 3;
Appendix S1: Table S3). The categorical variable migratory status had less support and did not appear in the
top-ranking model. The top model relating only hypothesized weather factors during the previous spring drop-off
period to winter tick loads included negative effects of
both the number of days below freezing and the proportion of days with measurable snow cover (Table 3;
Appendix S1: Table S4). The top model relating only
hypothesized weather factors during the previous late
summer period to subsequent winter tick loads included
positive effects of mean temperature and negative effects
of minimum relative humidity (Table 3; Appendix S1:
Table S5). Lastly, the top model relating weather factors
during the questing period to winter tick loads included
the number of days &lt;0� C, number of days &lt;−20� C, and
proportion of days with measurable snow cover (Table 3).
Winter tick loads decreased with days below the two
threshold temperatures during questing and further
decreased with higher proportions of days with ground
covered by snow (Appendix S1: Table S6).
Considering all hypotheses comprehensively, our top
model included predictive variables from all four hypotheses, including biotic conditions and all three seasonal
periods (Tables 4 and 5; Figure 3). All covariates identified as important during our initial stages of modeling
each hypothesis were retained in this top model except
for the number of days &lt;0� C during the spring drop-off
season, which was removed due to issues of multicollinearity with other covariates. Winter tick loads were
positively associated with moose density on winter range,
with moose at high density (β = 0.542, SE = 0.217,
p = 0.013) predicted to have over twice the tick loads as
those at low density (β = −0.631, SE = 0.283, p = 0.026).
Similarly, moose sharing winter range with other ungulates were predicted to have more than twice the tick load
of moose that did not (β = 0.787, SE = 0.226, p &lt; 0.001).

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ECOSPHERE

�DECESARE ET AL.

T A B L E 3 Four sets of a priori candidate models containing combinations of predictor variables hypothesized to affect loads of winter
ticks on moose captured during winter in 16 study areas within the US Rocky Mountains, 2013–2022.
AICc

ΔAICc

df

Weight

R 2c

R 2m

1. Moose density + vegetation type + shared winter
range

3188.5

0

7

0.758

0.324

0.112

2. Moose density + vegetation type + shared winter
range + migratory

3191.1

2.6

9

0.204

0.327

0.115

3. Moose density + shared winter range

3195.6

7.1

6

0.022

0.311

0.098

4. Vegetation type + shared winter range

3198.0

9.5

9

0.007

0.323

0.082

5. Vegetation type shared winter range + migratory

3200.1

11.6

7

0.002

0.324

0.085

3185.7

0

5

0.584

0.322

0.098

2. Days &lt;0 C + proportion days snow + days
&lt;−20� C

3187.5

1.8

6

0.235

0.324

0.099

3. SWE at end of period

3190.4

4.7

4

0.055

0.328

0.094

4. Mean temperature + SWE middle of period

3191.2

5.5

5

0.037

0.308

0.074

Candidate model
Hypothesis 1: Biotic conditions

Hypothesis 2: Weather during spring drop-off
1. Days &lt;0� C + proportion days snow
�

Hypothesis 3: Weather during summer
1. Mean temperature + minimum relative humidity

3182.0

0

5

0.701

0.297

0.131

2. Mean temperature + minimum relative humidity
quadratic

3184.1

2.0

6

0.261

0.298

0.131

3. Mean temperature + maximum relative humidity

3189.3

7.2

5

0.019

0.293

0.112

4. Mean temperature

3190.8

8.7

4

0.009

0.293

0.104

5. Mean temperature + cumulative precipitation

3191.3

9.1

5

0.007

0.293

0.107

3182.1

0

6

0.858

0.316

0.121

Hypothesis 4: Weather during fall questing
1. Proportion days snow + days &lt;0� C + days
&lt;−20� C
2. Proportion days snow + days &lt;0� C

3187.6

5.5

5

0.556

0.314

0.099

3. Mean temperature + days &lt;−20� C

3188.6

6.5

5

0.033

0.317

0.110

4. Mean temperature + SWE middle of period

3188.9

6.8

5

0.028

0.329

0.116

5. Mean temperature

3189.5

7.4

4

0.021

0.318

0.103

Null (random effects only)

3223.6

3

&lt;0.001

0.318

0.103

Note: See Appendix S1 for the top models of each candidate suite.
Abbreviations: AICc, corrected Akaike information criterion; SWE, snow water equivalent.

T A B L E 4 Top models that integrate variables included in the four independent suites of candidate models (see Table 3) predicting tick
loads of moose captured during winter in 16 study areas within the US Rocky Mountains, 2013–2022.
Candidate model

AICc

ΔAICc

df

Weight

Biotic + questing + summer + drop-off

3137.0

0.0

13

0.514

Biotic + questing + summer

3137.3

0.2

12

0.458

Biotic + drop-off + summer

3143.7

6.4

10

0.021

Null

3223.6

86.6

3

&lt;0.001

Abbreviation: AICc, corrected Akaike information criterion.

Winter tick loads were negatively associated with the proportion of snow-covered days, with such effect being
moderate during the questing period (β = −1.702,

SE = 0.946, p = 0.072) and weaker during the drop-off
period (β = −1.322, SE = 0.885, p = 0.135). Tick loads
were positively associated with warm temperatures

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8 of 15

�9 of 15

T A B L E 5 Top model predicting tick loads on moose captured during winter in 16 study areas within the US Rocky Mountains,
2013–2022, as a function of biotic factors and weather conditions during the previous tick drop-off period, summer, and tick questing
periods.
Model parameter
Intercept
Moose density high

β

SE

z

p

−3.827

0.702

−5.450

&lt;0.001

0.542

0.217

2.490

0.013

−0.631

0.283

−2.228

0.026

Vegetation type: Open

0.470

0.177

2.656

0.008

Winter range shared with other species

0.787

0.226

3.484

&lt;0.001

−1.322

0.885

−1.494

0.135

Moose density low

Drop-off: Proportion days with snow
Questing: Proportion days with snow

−1.702

0.946

−1.799

0.072

Questing: Days temperature &lt;0� C

−0.020

0.009

−2.400

0.016

Questing: Days temperature &lt;−20� C

−0.189

0.130

−1.454

0.146

0.227

0.053

4.254

&lt;0.001

−0.025

0.017

−1.468

0.142

Summer: Mean temperature
Summer: Minimum relative humidity
Note: Model weight = 0.514, Nakagawa’s marginal R = 0.238.
2

during summer (β = 0.227, SE = 0.053, p &lt; 0.001) and
negatively associated with the number of days below 0� C
(β = −0.020, SE = 0.009, p = 0.016) and below −20� C
(β = −0.189, SE = 0.130, p = 0.146) during autumn
questing. Lastly, tick loads were weakly negatively associated with minimum relative humidity during the previous summer (β = −0.025, SE = 0.017, p = 0.142). The
top model was estimated to explain 33.1% of total variation, of which 23.8% came from the fixed effects of interest (Nakagawa’s marginal R 2 = 0.238).
We also evaluated the relative contributions of spatial
variation in climate among study areas versus annual
variation in weather among years within study areas.
Holding the heterogeneous climates of each study area at
the means, the residual effects of days of snow-covered
ground during the drop-off period (β = −3.120,
SE = 1.008, p = 0.002) and days &lt;0� C (β = −0.021,
SE = 0.012, p = 0.088) and &lt;−20� C (β = −0.290,
SE = 0.162, p = 0.073) during the questing period each
remained moderately significant (Appendix S1: Table S7).
That is, annual variation in spring snow and autumn cold
temperatures within each study area contributed a significant addition beyond spatial differences alone. In contrast, differences in summer temperatures ( p = 0.755) or
humidity ( p = 0.987) from one year to the next were not
significant predictors of tick burden. Comparing
Nakagawa’s marginal R 2 from the model that removed
the effects of weather due solely to study area
(R 2 = 0.155) with that from the full model (R 2 = 0.238,
Table 5) suggested that approximately 35% of the variation explained by fixed effects in our best model was
caused by broadscale spatial variation in climate, whereas
the remainder was attributable to the combination of

annual variation in weather and biotic effects (e.g., host
densities and vegetation type; Appendix S1: Table S7).

DISCUSSION
We found that warm climatic regions, warm seasonal
periods within the annual tick life cycle, and warm years
relative to long-term averages all contributed to increased
tick loads incurred by moose in the western contiguous
United States. In addition to the ubiquitous importance of
temperature, we also found the important effects of snow
and other biotic sources of variation in driving tick loads.
Although we lacked fine-scale data necessary to examine
how microsite-scale climate conditions affect tick demography (Yoder et al., 2017) or how fine-scale movement
behavior of moose might affect tick encounter rates, these
results indicate the existence of broadscale variation in tick
loads across this region and that such variation can be partially explained by broadscale (500–5000 m resolution)
metrics of climate and other biotic conditions.
Our finding of higher winter tick loads where moose
shared winter range with other wild ungulates supports
speculation by Welch et al. (1991) that offspring of ticks
hosted by one species may use hosts of another. As a generalist parasite species, winter ticks are known to infect
other ungulates sympatric with moose in this region,
including elk, mule deer (O. hemionus), and white-tailed
deer (O. virginianus; Haley et al., 2021; Samuel et al.,
1980). Experimental studies indicate that moose carry the
higher per capita tick loads relative to other ungulate species (Welch et al., 1991), but it remains uncertain
whether other ungulates occurring at higher densities

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ECOSPHERE

�DECESARE ET AL.

2.5

Moose density

2.0

u

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1.0

co

I

0.5
0.0

low
2.5

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a.
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0.5

~

0.0

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E

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:.;:::;

2.5

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1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

1.0

0.0
med

0.0

high

no

Forest

yes

4

---

Temperature mean

3
2

0
28

3

44

Proportionate snow cover

2.5

8

13

Days &lt;0°C

2.5

2.0

2.0

2.0

+""
Cl)

1.5

1.5

1.5

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1.0

1.0

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a

Shrub

0.5

Relative humidity

2.5

C

I

I

0.5

~

12

0)

I

Proportionate snow cover

0

a.&gt;

&gt;

Q)

1.0
0.5

1.5

1.0

ro

u
:.;:::;

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I

2.0

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1.5

Vegetation type

1.5

I

0

I

2.5

2.0

0
0

Shared winter range

2.0

1.5

0

I...

2.5

0.5
0.0

~
0

0.35

0.7

~

0.5
0.0

Days &lt;-20°C

1.0
0.5
0.0

0

30

60

0

2.5

5

F I G U R E 3 Predicted relative tick loads and 95% confidence limits (y-axes and shading) spanning the observed range of values for each
covariate (x-axes) included in the final model and estimated using population-level predictions (i.e., random effects set to 0) and a 40-cm
transect length. Predictions were made for each covariate while holding other continuous covariates at their means, categorical covariates at
density = “medium,” shared winter range = “no,” and vegetation type = “forest,” and grouped by rows according to four hypothesized
suites of covariates including biotic conditions, and weather conditions during the spring drop-off period, summer larvae period, and fall
questing period, western United States, 2013–2022.

might yet make important contributions to tick
populations in shared range. The common prevalence of
winter ticks on ungulates such as white-tailed deer in
ecosystems lacking moose indicates these species can
themselves maintain tick populations (e.g., 22% prevalence on white-tailed deer in Georgia, USA;
Wedincamp &amp; Durden, 2016). In combination with previous findings, our results indicate that targeted reduction
of moose density to reduce winter tick parasitism (e.g., as
recommended by Ellingwood et al., 2020) may produce
limited benefits in areas where sympatric host species
also play important roles in tick abundance.
The patterns we observed relative to biotic predictors
of tick loads on moose have been supported by previous

investigations elsewhere. Our finding that high winter
tick loads were associated with high density of moose
(even as categorically assessed here) corroborates suggestions of similar relationships (Bergeron &amp; Pekins, 2014;
Samuel, 2007). Our finding that winter tick loads were
higher among moose captured in open, predominately
shrub-type habitats compared with forested areas tends
to corroborate work elsewhere, showing that off-host tick
survival or abundance was greater in habitat types with
open than closed canopies (Drew &amp; Samuel, 1986).
Alternatively, increased concentration of moose activity
in relatively discrete shrub habitat patches may facilitate
increased tick loads relative to more dispersed activity in
forests (Sousa &amp; Grosholz, 1991). That we found less

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10 of 15

�support for migratory status as a predictor of winter tick
loads may result from our categorical assessments (i.e.,
migratory or not) being too geographically imprecise to
capture the relevant information on spring and subsequent autumn locations.
Our models also corroborated previous work showing
that winter-like conditions during the spring drop-off and
fall questing periods reduced tick loads (Addison et al.,
2016; Drew &amp; Samuel, 1986; Power &amp; Pekins, 2020;
Ruprecht et al., 2020; Wilton &amp; Garner, 1993). Our results
were consistent with the findings of Holmes et al. (2018)
that winter ticks are susceptible to mortality from inoculative freezing (i.e., direct contact with snow or ice) as
well as from continuous or frequent exposure to cold
temperatures.
We expected a positive relationship between relative
humidity and tick loads, but relative humidity did not
appear in any of the top five models relating autumn
questing weather to tick loads. Its relationship with tick
loads in models of summer weather was weakly negative.
Yoder et al. (2016) discussed methods that larvae use to
resist desiccation, and Yoder et al. (2017) noted that larvae may be more responsive to signals of host presence in
drier than wetter conditions. Our study was limited to
broadscale patterns, whereas ticks may have been
responding to microclimates beyond our ability to characterize. Clarifying the effects of relative humidity on the
subsequent attachment of ticks to moose would appear to
require additional work; it appears from our analyses,
however, that tick loads can be high among moose even
in the most xeric habitats they inhabit of the western
United States (e.g., Utah Wasatch Range [UTWS] study
area, Appendix S1: Table S1).
Reflecting the study’s design and data, our statistical
models considered study areas as random intercepts.
That is, we considered each study area a random offset of
relationships characterizing moose in the United States
Rocky Mountains generally. However, we note that our
16 study areas also varied in weather factors that,
according to our analyses, were associated with tick loads
in the fixed-effects portions of the models (Appendix S1:
Table S1). For example, moose in southwest Colorado
had, on average, the lowest tick loads (quantified by tick
counts per square centimeter) of the 16 study areas, but
also had the highest proportion of days with snow during
the questing period and the lowest mean temperature
during the drop-off period. In contrast, moose in Utah’s
Wasatch Range had the highest mean tick loads, but the
lowest proportion of snow days and the highest mean
temperature during questing. As a result, a portion of the
predictive effects of weather were absorbed within
the random component of our models, rendering our estimates of fixed weather effects slightly conservative. That

11 of 15

said, our analyses suggest that some weather effects on
tick loads are more tightly associated with their geographic sources, whereas others are more temporally
variable. The positive associations we documented with
summer temperatures were associated with geography,
with no difference arising from year-to-year variation.
In contrast, temporal variation in snow cover in spring,
and, to a lesser extent, the incidence of cold temperatures in autumn, affected tick loads on an annual basis
for any given locality (Appendix S1: Table S7). These
results suggest that the observed trends of reduced
spring snow in western North America (Hamlet et al.,
2005) have perhaps the highest potential to induce
change in tick load dynamics in the immediate future of
this region.
To facilitate a comparison of tick loads in our western
United States study areas to those of previous studies
elsewhere in North America, we converted tick counts to
tick densities (per square centimeter; assuming each cm
of linear transect represented 1 cm2 of area sampled) in
both cases. We find these comparisons informative
while recognizing that they do not adequately control for
possible confounding factors such as differences in the
timing of sampling, body locations of sampling, and sex
and age classes sampled. Average tick densities in our
study varied from 0.007 ticks/cm2 (in Colorado
Southwest [COSW]) to 0.315 ticks/cm2 (in UTWS), with
an overall mean of 0.089 ticks/cm2 (SE = 0.007; Figure 4;
Appendix S1: Table S1). In Vermont, where tick infestation was concluded to be the primary cause of moose
mortality, median tick densities on adult and calf moose
were 0.24 and 0.36 ticks/cm2, respectively (i.e., 19 and
28.5 ticks counted across eight 10-cm2 transects; DeBow
et al., 2021). In New Hampshire, the mean tick density
across study areas and sex and age classes during a relatively average year (2008) was 0.33 ticks/cm2 (i.e., 53 ticks
counted across 16 10-cm2 transects; Bergeron &amp; Pekins,
2014). In a subsequent study focused on calves in New
Hampshire and Maine, the average tick densities at the
time of capture for moose calves were 0.61 ticks/cm2
(61 ticks counted along eight 10-cm2 transects), with significant differences between calves that survived (0.51)
versus those that died (0.65; Jones et al., 2019). These
comparisons suggest that tick loads in our sampled
moose were generally lower than where tick-related
die-offs have occurred in New England states, but that
the highest densities per individual moose in our sample
approached densities associated with tick-caused
mortality.
Our analyses suggest that similar biotic and abiotic
drivers of tick abundance found in eastern and central
North America are present in the western United States.
We found that reservoirs among moose and conspecifics

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ECOSPHERE

�DECESARE ET AL.

n,

...n,
Q)

&gt;,

-

'C

:::i

! /)

cl

WYME
WYJA
UTWS
UTNS
MTEF
MTCA
MTBH

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••

•

.-

1076
1066
106
1051
1010
101

cosw
CONW
CONE
0.0

0.5

1.0

Ticks per cm2
F I G U R E 4 Density distributions (lines and shading), raw data values (dots), and median values (asterisks) for winter tick density
measurements collected on the rump of moose across each of 16 study areas (CONE, Colorado Northeast; CONW, Colorado Northwest;
COSW, Colorado Southwest; ID1, Idaho northern panhandle; ID10, Idaho Clearwater River area; ID51, Idaho south-central; ID6, Idaho
central panhandle; ID66, Idaho Targhee area; ID76, Idaho southeast; MTBH, Montana Big Hole Valley; MTCA, Montana Cabinet
Mountains; MTEF, Montana East Front; UTNS, Utah North Slope; UTWS, Utah Wasatch Range; WYJA, Wyoming Jackson Hole; WYME,
Wyoming Meeteetse) in the western US, 2013–2022. Also shown are vertical line reference values corresponding to average tick densities in
three studies from the northeastern United States: (A) average adult moose in Vermont (DeBow et al., 2021), (B) average across all sex and
age classes, study areas, and during an average year in New Hampshire (Bergeron &amp; Pekins, 2014), and (C) average among calves in New
Hampshire and Maine (Jones et al., 2019).

can be important in perpetuating tick infestations
(because tick loads were positively associated both with
moose density and overlap with other ungulates). We
found that snow cover during both spring drop-off and
autumn questing periods strongly depressed subsequent
tick loads, and that higher summer temperatures were
associated with greater tick loads than lower temperatures. Because climate change is expected to produce
both warmer summers (McGuire et al., 2012) and shorter
winters (Evan &amp; Eisenman, 2021; Musselman et al.,
2021) in the Rocky Mountains, a trend toward higher tick
loads among moose in these areas in the future is
expected.
A U T H O R C ON T R I B U T I O NS
Nicholas J. DeCesare, Eric J. Bergman, and Kent
R. Hersey conceived the study. All authors collected data
and provided editorial advice. Richard B. Harris and
Nicholas J. DeCesare analyzed the data. Nicholas
J. DeCesare and Richard B. Harris wrote the manuscript.
A C K N O WL E D G M E N T S
Many thanks go to all biologists and pilots who aided in
initiating this study and collecting data across areas and
periods of study. Funding for this project was provided by
the General Sale of Hunting and Fishing Licenses, the

Annual Auction of Moose Hunting Licenses, Federal Aid
in Wildlife Restoration grants, and the Safari Club
International Foundation. We thank L. Thompson and
the National Climate Adaptation Science Center for
funding the research in the Jackson, WY study area.
Fieldwork in the Meeteetse study area was funded by
M. and C. Rumsey, M. Newhouse, A. Young, J. Nielson,
the UW-NPS Research Station, the Wyoming Governors
Big Game License Coalition, and the Wyoming Game
and Fish Department. We thank L. Kantar and K. Oyen
for advice and consultation, and we thank
M. Hebblewhite for administrative support. Any use of
trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes
only and does not imply endorsement by the
United States Government.
C O N F L I C T O F I N T E R E S T S T A TE M E N T
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
DA TA AVAI LA BI LI TY S T ATE ME NT
Data (DeCesare, 2024) are available from Dryad: https://
doi.org/10.5061/dryad.gqnk98svz.
ORCID
Alyson B. Courtemanch
7405-7657

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-

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12 of 15

�Rebecca L. Levine
2911

13 of 15

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3913-

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S UP PO RT ING IN FOR MAT ION
Additional supporting information can be found online
in the Supporting Information section at the end of this
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15 of 15

How to cite this article: DeCesare, Nicholas J.,
Richard B. Harris, M. Paul Atwood, Eric
J. Bergman, Alyson B. Courtemanch, Paul
C. Cross, Gary L. Fralick, et al. 2024. “Warm
Places, Warm Years, and Warm Seasons Increase
Parasitizing of Moose by Winter Ticks.” Ecosphere
15(3): e4799. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4799

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